spx

the spx moves appear bearish.it should however meander till july without moving above 1450 to maintain bearish mode.ofcourse this should be followed by a sell off.
my current estimate is spx should drop to 1225-1200 zone and then rise to no higher than 1375.

gold may move to 1650-1700 zone and then sell off to sub 1400 levels.

sensex, gold

there have been two options all along since the correction had started in the indian indices some time back..
1. sensex breaks 15300, makes a low and moves up to new bull highs
2. sensex falls to 14300-13800 zone atleast ( to make a lot of structural sense)

i have been flipflopping , begining with 15300  and then bearish views of point 2.
the smart rally of late had given hope that a low had been seen coupled with the rise in spx above previous highs ..autos, consumer durables, fmcg, pharma, cement stocks staging nice rallies and giving an indication of leadership sectors.
however the situation points to the likely hood of scenario 2 playing out and very soon panic dives to sub 14000 is on the cards.sensex shouldnot rally much above 17000 levels now on consistent basis.

one may correlate economically ;the pain for indian companies may have just begun.

i still expect gold to reach 1350 usd levels.silver crude all are in bad shape which may point to general risk aversion globally.
 followers of bond markets may mail me their interpretations especially with the headfake US market had done.

few stocks for the bull

acc, ambuja cement and grasim in that order.

acc has begun its march towards 3000.

for the nifty resistance lies at 5700 odd which will be overcome for tgts of 6000+.

euro-gold

euro has hit 1.295, gold has resumed its downwards journey and is about 1570.

still maintain my previous targets on equities, euro and gold though its difficult to get a hand of what spx is doing right now.

its just a pendulum right now doing flip flop on its axis.

however since markets are always attempting for clarity, the picture hopefully will be clearer soon.

just do it

What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence. The only consequence is what we do.

reflection

it is difficult to make money in the markets because we confuse analysis as being synonymous with trade.

review of wrong analysis

i had been bullish on indian index (and bank index) with targets of 18000 +.before that i had a bearish view all along expecting 15300 in the least.so the markets played a trick and set up the perfect trap for all technical traders who like me saw higher levels expecting that the low may be in in direct conflict with earlier analysis and not paying heed to long term technicals and getting carried away placing opinion on markets( like low may be in)

in the markets , mistakes and analysis like this is usually very expensive and one learns the hard way.but thats the only way to learn i guess.

so though i am mindful of the fact that markets have been going down inspite of global bad news which is a rare thing to happen.maybe it is warning us that things will be a little bad ahead and to brace for the same.

so i am sticking to a little more bearish view as highlighted in prior posts with targets of 900 on spx, 1.29 on eurodollar,13852-14286 on indian sensex.the stop losses for such a trade is 1292 on spx and 17703 on sensex.