spx

the spx moves appear bearish.it should however meander till july without moving above 1450 to maintain bearish mode.ofcourse this should be followed by a sell off.
my current estimate is spx should drop to 1225-1200 zone and then rise to no higher than 1375.

gold may move to 1650-1700 zone and then sell off to sub 1400 levels.

sensex, gold

there have been two options all along since the correction had started in the indian indices some time back..
1. sensex breaks 15300, makes a low and moves up to new bull highs
2. sensex falls to 14300-13800 zone atleast ( to make a lot of structural sense)

i have been flipflopping , begining with 15300  and then bearish views of point 2.
the smart rally of late had given hope that a low had been seen coupled with the rise in spx above previous highs ..autos, consumer durables, fmcg, pharma, cement stocks staging nice rallies and giving an indication of leadership sectors.
however the situation points to the likely hood of scenario 2 playing out and very soon panic dives to sub 14000 is on the cards.sensex shouldnot rally much above 17000 levels now on consistent basis.

one may correlate economically ;the pain for indian companies may have just begun.

i still expect gold to reach 1350 usd levels.silver crude all are in bad shape which may point to general risk aversion globally.
 followers of bond markets may mail me their interpretations especially with the headfake US market had done.

few stocks for the bull

acc, ambuja cement and grasim in that order.

acc has begun its march towards 3000.

for the nifty resistance lies at 5700 odd which will be overcome for tgts of 6000+.

euro-gold

euro has hit 1.295, gold has resumed its downwards journey and is about 1570.

still maintain my previous targets on equities, euro and gold though its difficult to get a hand of what spx is doing right now.

its just a pendulum right now doing flip flop on its axis.

however since markets are always attempting for clarity, the picture hopefully will be clearer soon.

just do it

What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence. The only consequence is what we do.

reflection

it is difficult to make money in the markets because we confuse analysis as being synonymous with trade.

review of wrong analysis

i had been bullish on indian index (and bank index) with targets of 18000 +.before that i had a bearish view all along expecting 15300 in the least.so the markets played a trick and set up the perfect trap for all technical traders who like me saw higher levels expecting that the low may be in in direct conflict with earlier analysis and not paying heed to long term technicals and getting carried away placing opinion on markets( like low may be in)

in the markets , mistakes and analysis like this is usually very expensive and one learns the hard way.but thats the only way to learn i guess.

so though i am mindful of the fact that markets have been going down inspite of global bad news which is a rare thing to happen.maybe it is warning us that things will be a little bad ahead and to brace for the same.

so i am sticking to a little more bearish view as highlighted in prior posts with targets of 900 on spx, 1.29 on eurodollar,13852-14286 on indian sensex.the stop losses for such a trade is 1292 on spx and 17703 on sensex.

markets update

to make structural sense actually, in the present context:

---spx should fall to 900-860 zone!

---euro dollar should be at least less than 1.29,

---indian sensex should be less than 14300-13852

this is ofcourse based on the fact, that current fall is part of the ongoing correction since 2008(and not that a new bull market started since the lows of 666).

these values are almost like blasphemy to most traders.so lets see how next 6 months pan out.

bank nifty

possible bank nifty targets are 11065 and 11435

the crux of all problems

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

sensex

there is good chance that sensex is all set to rally to 18945

spx

spx had changed trend at 1124 as written before.

since the change it has been actively defending 1120 zone refusing to go and close below it.

so whenever it closes below 1124 on a daily basis should be a sign that the next move down is starting.targets as given before still stand.

the only one issue is that there is a complete news based selloff eg. spx is downgraded and it sell off. europe is in trouble, it sells off.this is not exactly the way it should be happening. and inspite of this element of fear and global panic, it refuses to go below 1124 and do a close below.maybe it is just bidding time.else..

gold update

sometime back, based on time and price studies i had commented that a sell off may be seen in gold by september which has come true topping in the range also thought.

gold has changed trend now and should see minimum retrace( which is in line with the perception at the moment that it should see a large retrace!).

it is not the best time to hold or buy gold for sure.

the beast update

gold has respected its long term tgt.hopefully it will not move further and avoid the bubble territory.

trend reversal point is at 1620.

it should not move much above 1825 type of zone now.

excellence

“If you focus on success, you’ll have stress. But if you pursue excellence, success will be guaranteed.” ~ Deepak Chopra

nifty update

on august 2nd i had posted that index should move to 4800. it has hot 4796, in a matter of 10 sessions i suppose.

update

gold continues unabated.

looking at the charts , gold's immediate target i have posted last time..

but if i look at the bubble territory , its 2300-2600 usd.

will it get there?

the beast

gold is the un-tameable beast of the financial market defying gravity making new highs.

still to hazard a guess, it is likley to see sell off perhaps by september, topping out in 1850-1950 zone and falling to 1350 levels.

spx

bounces in spx whenever they come will be limited to 1200 and below. it is almost not possible to go above 1250 for spx .so that becomes upper ceiling and change of trend level.

further very soon it will come to 1039-1009. eventual tgt is 935-950 zone.

spx

1130 was an approximate zone of change of trend.. the exact change of trend happens at 1124.