review of wrong analysis

i had been bullish on indian index (and bank index) with targets of 18000 +.before that i had a bearish view all along expecting 15300 in the least.so the markets played a trick and set up the perfect trap for all technical traders who like me saw higher levels expecting that the low may be in in direct conflict with earlier analysis and not paying heed to long term technicals and getting carried away placing opinion on markets( like low may be in)

in the markets , mistakes and analysis like this is usually very expensive and one learns the hard way.but thats the only way to learn i guess.

so though i am mindful of the fact that markets have been going down inspite of global bad news which is a rare thing to happen.maybe it is warning us that things will be a little bad ahead and to brace for the same.

so i am sticking to a little more bearish view as highlighted in prior posts with targets of 900 on spx, 1.29 on eurodollar,13852-14286 on indian sensex.the stop losses for such a trade is 1292 on spx and 17703 on sensex.

markets update

to make structural sense actually, in the present context:

---spx should fall to 900-860 zone!

---euro dollar should be at least less than 1.29,

---indian sensex should be less than 14300-13852

this is ofcourse based on the fact, that current fall is part of the ongoing correction since 2008(and not that a new bull market started since the lows of 666).

these values are almost like blasphemy to most traders.so lets see how next 6 months pan out.

bank nifty

possible bank nifty targets are 11065 and 11435

the crux of all problems

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

sensex

there is good chance that sensex is all set to rally to 18945

spx

spx had changed trend at 1124 as written before.

since the change it has been actively defending 1120 zone refusing to go and close below it.

so whenever it closes below 1124 on a daily basis should be a sign that the next move down is starting.targets as given before still stand.

the only one issue is that there is a complete news based selloff eg. spx is downgraded and it sell off. europe is in trouble, it sells off.this is not exactly the way it should be happening. and inspite of this element of fear and global panic, it refuses to go below 1124 and do a close below.maybe it is just bidding time.else..

gold update

sometime back, based on time and price studies i had commented that a sell off may be seen in gold by september which has come true topping in the range also thought.

gold has changed trend now and should see minimum retrace( which is in line with the perception at the moment that it should see a large retrace!).

it is not the best time to hold or buy gold for sure.