path

to attempt a future path is an exercise rooted in luck.still to hazard one:

nifty will move to 5620 initially and attempt 5680.then react to 5400-5500 levels and then attempt for 5800 levels( ideally 5900).this is a bullish scenario playing out.

nifty expectations

the first sign of strength will be a move to 5800+ level.

most ( on TV) are expecting significant resistance at 5600 levels which is an obvious resistance.

but taking it out or not taking it out doesnot lend any weightage on the charts.

say what happens if 5600 is taken out and index reacts from 5700 odd. does that mean index is strong or weak?

so it is a resistance alright but not one that matters.

i look forward to 5800+ level as the first indicator of strength on index.

a time to .....

some major forecasts made

gold: forecast: tgt 1540+.. target achieved. high so far 1560

crude oil( nymex) : tgt 115 usd. target achieved. high so far 115!

spx : forecast : 1370 .target achieved. high so far 1370!

nifty: the day lic hsg finance fell, i said that the a long frustrating consolidation has begun.

the index will now frustrate the long and the short both and oscillate between everyone 's expectations.it hasnot broken the previous low but will do so .stocks are being battered left right and centre which is and will be the cause of all frustrations.

it is difficult to provide a concrete wave label to the current scenario .

Last 3-4 years have been very eventful for the indian and financial markets.a startling bear followed by a dazzling bull.

but taking a lead from sports, all good players say in cricket know that they must leave and defend their wicket and life on good balls and wait patiently since loose favourable balls will come every now and then

a good trader /investor must invest when the odds are in favour. They are not so right now.it is very easy to loose money in this market.So my current stand is to stay aside and chill.

nifty

nifty is in a frustrating zone. the base formation phase has started and i feel we have almost seen the lows.this ideally will mean that low of 5200 may just be touched /brushed marginally but not broken convincingly.the odds currently are against such happening also.

the other aspect is : is it a good time to buy? for traders : scalping moves will be there, but since market is in early consolidation phase, it will be ambiguous and uncertain in direction, which is not good for positional trading. so swing and be merry!

investors have no choice but to buy these dips. however there may not be much gain, if any till the end of this year. so the time period as an investor has to be go beyond couple of years to reap the gains. the patient will be rewarded.

the best gains come from investments made in periods of uncertainty.

the precious and the black

oil is down 10% (oops). it has reversed from the top zone of its target like it was expected to do .it is not a mere co incidence that almost all the analysts were calling for 200 usd oil just like they were calling for 50usd oil when it was in 70 usd.i think most of them, if not all, are paid to be wrong1

gold has also reversed from the top of its range target. noteworthy is silver which has lost just the way it had gained.

ideally silver should go into a long consolidation phase before any worthwhile bull be seen in it.

in any case i will review the charts and post accordingly.

the precious and the black

oil is down 10% (oops). it has reversed from the top zone of its target like it was expected to do .it is not a mere co incidence that almost all the analysts were calling for 200 usd oil just like they were calling for 50usd oil when it was in 70 usd.i think most of them, if not all, are paid to be wrong1

gold has also reversed from the top of its range target. noteworthy is silver which has lost just the way it had gained.

ideally silver should go into a long consolidation phase before any worthwhile bull be seen in it.

in any case i will review the charts and post accordingly.

gold

gold : at 1537!