Monday, August 8, 2011

nifty,spx , oil

nifty had confirmed the pattern i wrote last. 5020-4985 is the area from which bounce is likely.watch for that area and cover all shorts for once here. bounce will begin around/on the day when nifty will close at the lowest point of the day.

spx ,on a bearish sell signal , is in a hurry to reach its trend reversal point as written last.
this has effectively meant that 1370 was indeed the top for quite some time now!

crude has come down to 80usd after hitting the top of 115usd!!
i feel quite nice about these forecasts.


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8 comments:

  1. KRGAugust 8, 2011 at 10:59 PM

    (1) any reason why the bounce has to be from a level where "nifty closes at the low" ?

    (2) still awaiting your working count in nifty on a larger time frame. You think the major B has ended at 5700? If so whouldn't it mean reversal from a lower high and the targets would be much lower.. right?

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  2. vipulAugust 8, 2011 at 11:08 PM

    there are two options only : either bounce begins when nifty closes at the lowest or when it opens at the lowest and bounce begins.
    this is to avoid any larger term change of direction, technically.

    major B has not ended at 5700.4800-4600 is worst kind of range one can expect as on date. rest depends on how markets further pan out.i am out of my positional shorts today having reached 4983.one should only play for trading shorts,if at all.

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  3. KRGAugust 8, 2011 at 11:34 PM

    thanks. If major B has not ended, do you think we will get a leg up say 5900-6300 range from whatever low we hit now as you say...like 4600-4800 ?

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  4. vipulAugust 9, 2011 at 12:14 AM

    no i didnt mean to imply that B or the upleg from 2009 lows has not ended.it may have just ended in all probabilities but not at 5700.the pattern ended at 6335 highs and not at 5700 area.

    going back to 5900-6300 in a hurry is almost not possible.

    in a way what market is doing today is what i implied when i said that either market opens lowest and bounces, or closes at lowest and then bounces.
    one has to now look for 5275-5325 area where pressure will come in again.

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  5. KRGAugust 9, 2011 at 4:07 AM

    One doubt Vipul: For the major pattern to have ended at 6335, the last leg (that appears to be from May 2010-Nov 2010) should have been reversed in faster time .. right? However so far we are still above the May 2010 level. Any thoughts on this?

    Thanks & regards

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  6. vipulAugust 9, 2011 at 4:48 AM

    the statement is not entirely correct.
    generally the last leg is reversed in faster time.but it all depends on the internal structure of the pattern and the last leg.say the pattern is a diametric and the last leg G is a zigzag.hence if the reversal move after zigzag, ends the zigzag legitimately, it ends the diametric.the extent of correction after the end of diametric will determine the degree label to be placed.

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  7. KRGAugust 9, 2011 at 7:56 AM

    thanks

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  8. KRGAugust 9, 2011 at 7:56 AM

    thanks

    ReplyDelete

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