nse

today by hitting 5780, a possibility has emerged of coming to 5650.

5800 has been very strong st. market has made 3 attempts to breach these levels of 5815-5825 which was successful today. further so far only banks have cracked. real estate is in any case dud sector, so what happens is inconsequential to index.

so now a bounce to 5900 tomorrow and then panic fall to 5650 may just be on cards, with autos, metals and banks cracking more.

panic- sensex

nse is 5825 as a write this.

this is the panic i was talking about esp in banks.

now resistance is at 5900 spot with sl at 5970 spot.

broker effect

today is a classical case of broker effect.5350 is being talked about.!!

i had a small short position in bank nifty and jp associates, which i covered at a loss right at 9.16 am.thankfully it was small since i didnt really wanna short overnight esp after panic.

i only wish he had called me before market close on friday and not in the evening. would have saved me good money, as i would nt have been short into close then.

but this is also a reminder to me to stick to ones beliefs.a bull mkt should not really be shorted esp overnight.intraday is the best trade if one wants to short.

a vacation to mauritius would ve been much cheaper!

sensex

got a call from my broker that 5350 is being said in circles.

as a trader i will be cautious when such 'news' come in.

so tomorrow will be crucial since nse closed below 5900 which was a major support.

technically a lot of bank stocks need to have a round of panic still like sbi, idbi,idfc,icicibk,lic,kotakbk,relcap,axis, relcap.

tatamotors looks weak.so does tisco, hindalco, and bhushan steel.

hence some further panic is likely to 5815-5825 in the minimum.

5955( future nifty) is most crucial and stop loss now for all shorts.

sensex

some time back i had commented a couple of times that charts looked weaker than normal. so the prop up at diwali was just coal india management. i would look for deeper correction once 5985 spot on nse and 20009 on sensex are broken.

it will mean that a larger time wise and price wise correction is possible.

however a two day sell off on global weakness is followed by bounce or not, monday will tell.

if weakness persisists, it will simply mean that i can have a nice unplanned vacation!

because i am not shorting any market execpt for scalps and intraday trades.

sensex

i was expecting a new high on diwali day. but it hasnot xome as yet. a large part of my thought process was that coal india had to do well , which would need bullish undertone.

so there has been a complacency of sort that sensex will make a new high.its given.

but market akways has a n ace up its sleeve.so its consolidating again ,which in my opinion is a good thing.( it also helps to see a correction with nil position!)

markets need to get into a panic zone which today it is on the verge of entering.its right from 6165 to 6125 and then all the way upto 6020 nse spot.

which means between these levels and upto 6020 levels a base will be formed which will take the index to new high.though its unlikely that it will go below 6100 spot.its good that it s consolidating and correcting now. it will take off the bullishness and create a base so that new highs are more sustainable,than just a touch and go situation.

gold

gold cash target is 1540 usd

stocks update

gmdc tgt 177-187-206. it is getting to 206 in a very short span'

icicibank-1315-1325, immediate

ongc-1550+ very soon

pnb-1460 immediate

idbi-205-immediate

idfc-223-immediate

obc-560 , very short term

karnataka bank-225+ very short term

hindalco-247-immediate

ge shipping-393-407, immediate

jp asscoaites-152, very short term

orchid-400. huge buy on all declines.just buy.

commodity currency

i was asked why i dont comment on commodities and currencies more often.

the reason is that i dont actively trade most of them.and hence i have less to comment on them.

secondly a major reason for not covering commodities and currencies esp currencies is that in my opinion they donot follow or behave in elliott waves over long term

in intermediate term or a cycle they do and can be described and analysed by elliott waves but over larger time frames they cannot be .

the essential reason is that they esp currencies donot reflect natural progression over time and are managed by central banks etc. this distorts there longer term structures.

so either they behave well in a cycle or from one major intervention to next.

crude- sensex

crude has been extremely range bound for some time and so was sensex.

i was asked whether crude will have the same kind of potential then.

the crude has gone through large consolidation but to say it is in similar state as sensex is not correct.

where crude has consolidated and where sensex had, are different zones with different implications.

crude should move to the upside .

update

1. spx

spx has made a new high and yday closed above previous day.is there a reason to short.? absolutely no.

spx is on track, is showing loads of strength, is trending well, has made a new high.

i see and cannot understand the need to short.any expectancy of terminal wave is totally flawed and needs significant correction.

my target still remains 1375+.i think spx has a base near 1115 or so.

2. crude

looks good. the great indian investor rakesh jhunjhunwala says crude shouldnot go much above 75-80, and he is a great great trader-investor , but i still think crude will hit 100 plus

3. indian equity-sensex

looks good only.coal india is 350+. gitanjali is 350, chambal made a new high, jubiliant foodworks has started moving.idbi is 195.

what next?

higher levels are coming and some sort of reaction now will only devolop from 6500+ range

like a number of stocks: ge shipping, mrpl,pnb, idfc,icicibank,jet air,jp associates,obc, karnataka bank.

in next update i ll try and post stocks with targets.

oil

crude will break on the upside and make atleast 100-115 levels in the least.

if this doesnt happen, crude will remain below 85 usd for maybe a decade which seems unlikely.

coal india

325!!

coal india makes history as expected.still has more upsides for the patient man