quote

To be successful, you have to
understand that trading is NOT
about picking highs and lows,
it's about making money."
- Mark Minervini

crude

crude made a new high at 90. most crucial resistance s lie at 94-97 band and which will be decisive for any further rally in crude.

also most news items and analysts expect crude to remain firm, which is an obvious reaction for say crude at new recent highs.

nse

indian equity stocks are weaker than normal. hence consolidation has not begun yet.

logically expect more lows perhaps 5550.nse by failing to cross 6080 has shown weakness .

in a larger context , sectoral rotation has to happen now, since the banking sector which has lead this rally along with autos cannot lead the next phase up.

nse

today by hitting 5780, a possibility has emerged of coming to 5650.

5800 has been very strong st. market has made 3 attempts to breach these levels of 5815-5825 which was successful today. further so far only banks have cracked. real estate is in any case dud sector, so what happens is inconsequential to index.

so now a bounce to 5900 tomorrow and then panic fall to 5650 may just be on cards, with autos, metals and banks cracking more.

panic- sensex

nse is 5825 as a write this.

this is the panic i was talking about esp in banks.

now resistance is at 5900 spot with sl at 5970 spot.

broker effect

today is a classical case of broker effect.5350 is being talked about.!!

i had a small short position in bank nifty and jp associates, which i covered at a loss right at 9.16 am.thankfully it was small since i didnt really wanna short overnight esp after panic.

i only wish he had called me before market close on friday and not in the evening. would have saved me good money, as i would nt have been short into close then.

but this is also a reminder to me to stick to ones beliefs.a bull mkt should not really be shorted esp overnight.intraday is the best trade if one wants to short.

a vacation to mauritius would ve been much cheaper!

sensex

got a call from my broker that 5350 is being said in circles.

as a trader i will be cautious when such 'news' come in.

so tomorrow will be crucial since nse closed below 5900 which was a major support.

technically a lot of bank stocks need to have a round of panic still like sbi, idbi,idfc,icicibk,lic,kotakbk,relcap,axis, relcap.

tatamotors looks weak.so does tisco, hindalco, and bhushan steel.

hence some further panic is likely to 5815-5825 in the minimum.

5955( future nifty) is most crucial and stop loss now for all shorts.

sensex

some time back i had commented a couple of times that charts looked weaker than normal. so the prop up at diwali was just coal india management. i would look for deeper correction once 5985 spot on nse and 20009 on sensex are broken.

it will mean that a larger time wise and price wise correction is possible.

however a two day sell off on global weakness is followed by bounce or not, monday will tell.

if weakness persisists, it will simply mean that i can have a nice unplanned vacation!

because i am not shorting any market execpt for scalps and intraday trades.

sensex

i was expecting a new high on diwali day. but it hasnot xome as yet. a large part of my thought process was that coal india had to do well , which would need bullish undertone.

so there has been a complacency of sort that sensex will make a new high.its given.

but market akways has a n ace up its sleeve.so its consolidating again ,which in my opinion is a good thing.( it also helps to see a correction with nil position!)

markets need to get into a panic zone which today it is on the verge of entering.its right from 6165 to 6125 and then all the way upto 6020 nse spot.

which means between these levels and upto 6020 levels a base will be formed which will take the index to new high.though its unlikely that it will go below 6100 spot.its good that it s consolidating and correcting now. it will take off the bullishness and create a base so that new highs are more sustainable,than just a touch and go situation.

gold

gold cash target is 1540 usd

stocks update

gmdc tgt 177-187-206. it is getting to 206 in a very short span'

icicibank-1315-1325, immediate

ongc-1550+ very soon

pnb-1460 immediate

idbi-205-immediate

idfc-223-immediate

obc-560 , very short term

karnataka bank-225+ very short term

hindalco-247-immediate

ge shipping-393-407, immediate

jp asscoaites-152, very short term

orchid-400. huge buy on all declines.just buy.

commodity currency

i was asked why i dont comment on commodities and currencies more often.

the reason is that i dont actively trade most of them.and hence i have less to comment on them.

secondly a major reason for not covering commodities and currencies esp currencies is that in my opinion they donot follow or behave in elliott waves over long term

in intermediate term or a cycle they do and can be described and analysed by elliott waves but over larger time frames they cannot be .

the essential reason is that they esp currencies donot reflect natural progression over time and are managed by central banks etc. this distorts there longer term structures.

so either they behave well in a cycle or from one major intervention to next.

crude- sensex

crude has been extremely range bound for some time and so was sensex.

i was asked whether crude will have the same kind of potential then.

the crude has gone through large consolidation but to say it is in similar state as sensex is not correct.

where crude has consolidated and where sensex had, are different zones with different implications.

crude should move to the upside .

update

1. spx

spx has made a new high and yday closed above previous day.is there a reason to short.? absolutely no.

spx is on track, is showing loads of strength, is trending well, has made a new high.

i see and cannot understand the need to short.any expectancy of terminal wave is totally flawed and needs significant correction.

my target still remains 1375+.i think spx has a base near 1115 or so.

2. crude

looks good. the great indian investor rakesh jhunjhunwala says crude shouldnot go much above 75-80, and he is a great great trader-investor , but i still think crude will hit 100 plus

3. indian equity-sensex

looks good only.coal india is 350+. gitanjali is 350, chambal made a new high, jubiliant foodworks has started moving.idbi is 195.

what next?

higher levels are coming and some sort of reaction now will only devolop from 6500+ range

like a number of stocks: ge shipping, mrpl,pnb, idfc,icicibank,jet air,jp associates,obc, karnataka bank.

in next update i ll try and post stocks with targets.

oil

crude will break on the upside and make atleast 100-115 levels in the least.

if this doesnt happen, crude will remain below 85 usd for maybe a decade which seems unlikely.

coal india

325!!

coal india makes history as expected.still has more upsides for the patient man

spx

spx has turned volatile. however it needs to be watched . volatility at this level is obvious but the range is not too large to cause a concern . hence it is possible that it is preparing for anew high.

however action is not so conclusive.

however a sign of strength will mean that 1220 is coming now.

sensex

nifty has come into 5900-5950 zone , with current low around 5942 spot. in the least one more low breaking 5930 is required.

some have mailed me saying a possible head and shoulders topping pattern.

i dont think that it exists here .

index has been in a corrective mode and so has done exactly that. it had to come into this zone which it has done.

still the stocks look weaker than usual which may is an indication of prolonged sideways action if not more correction.

so it is quite possible that month and settlement remains subdues and sideways till the the time averages catch up and stocks can form a base .

the day of next major panic should be a short term buying oppurtunity.

update -stocks

exit gitanjali at 268 and indiabulls at 220.will try and enter indiabulls at lower levels.

chambal still looks good.idbi is okay.174 now.

petronet is still a hold.watching it today .the tgt is 137 spot. but must move up today.

Raymond is on stock that i am liking and going long esp if it closes at 410 kind of levels.tgt are 480 and 525 atleast.

coal india

coal india has been subscribed 25 times in QIB portion.tomorrow should see huge retail and HNI demand and further huge huge QIB demand.

i have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that coal india within its 5 trading day of listing will stun everyone on the upside.

it is pure india conviction story.

whoever can invest should invest and go long.

and these are not based on any research or any knowledge of fundamentals but on how market is placed today.market players are hungry to put money at work.

simply invest , subscribe to ipo.

sensex

good volatility on sensex today, my initial target is 5930 nifty cash, which should be achieved tomorrow or day after.

nifty gave one try below 6000 and was bought into but stock charts are weaker than normal, so my initial thought of base between 5900-5950 still holds.

volatility and coal india

volatility is ofcourse expected near life time highs and thats what the market is doing.

further it needs to shake off the weaker longs before the next ascent.a base is there between 5900-5950 which is unlikely to be broekn and a dip below 6000 and 20000 sensex will provide the necessary panic.

coal india, the biggest indian ipo opens from monday and hence liquidity pressure can cause the current market fall.

coal india will be a runaway success ( i know nothing of and about the company except basics).it will be so because any fund worth some money will buy into it.HNI and QIB segment should see massive oversubscription maybe 20-25 times and retail about 2 times.with a price of 245 it should open and touch 300-325 on the opening day.

markets will make another attempt soon at highs and by listing of coal india, i believe it will.

markets dont repeat themselves.

sensex

there cannot be any substantial correction in the sensex till this year end atleast. all corrections can only be time wise and not price wise. in effect it cannot dip below 19000 .

fundamental view

institutional investors are pouring money and mutual funds are net sellers.

why is that?

mutual funds is largely a pool of retail money and who will want to cash out at these levels.near new highs.what if falls kind of thinking that we all have.

FII's pouring money is actually the transfer of shareholding to stronger hands from 'weaker' retail and mutual funds.

why will FII's pour money at these levels?because they realise the trajectory of indian market.

everybody fears large protracted falls. but when sees a bottom in sight and knows we ve seen the worst and that index will now not go below 5000 levels on nifty , a larger well capitalised player will pump money.

thats whats happening.action on realisation that the gap in indian markets at 4000 nifty levels will not be filled.

what next

sensex is resting, correcting a little.

oil and gas is looking more and more attractive and will move into the buy zone very zone from the current accumulation zone. of course as a trader one cannot buy here but have to wait for confirmation before going in and buying.

indiabulls did 189 and is really going up.

ifci, idbi should make new highs say 100 and 180+ soon .

6070 nse spot is a very good support. so market should have a tough time breaking this level by far if at all.

relmedia is an all out buy at this level. expect 330, 350 in this month only currently at 280 is i suppose. so a good 25% from here with little risk.

indiabulls

some time back i had remarked that indiabulls was going to 190 and sadly it consolidated for a while. but now it is surely going to 200+. a huge break.

nifty : booking profits

it is time to book profits on nifty and exit long positions at these levels.

stock specific action may continue, but market has confirmed today upwards trajectory and hence us liable to rest for awhile.

bhsuhan steel !!

as i write this bhushan steel is up 16%, at 505+

now thats what i call a bull move.

update

pharma has really fired. banks have fired today.

unitech has started moving. not a bad situation overall.

hugely bullish on bhel.

and ofcourse index. as i write it is at 6120...it is simply going to stun everyone if not allready.

equities

spx has broken on the upside of 1150 without going below 1125 inspite of repeated tries .this ofcourse is on expected lines. now a good march forward should be there as outlined before.

indian mkts, sensex should continue upwards. it gave till support today and so ideally shouldnt give much of a chance. banks have been silent for a while and should lead the next leg up as they have done before.settlement expired at just the right levels and between 6000-6100 and was one of the heaviest settlement.

oil has moved up from the time i thought it had made a low.

corrections

i got some feedback over mail that index should be shorted at this level and larger correction is due especially after some intraday selloff.

the fear of corrections is the steam of this rally,actually. at every level a trend reversal is expected based on some wave count labels.the price action is suggestive of anything but a trend reversal. corrections cannot be ruled out. however not every intraday corrective move is the onset of larger correction.

and really shorting is just not warranted at all.

settlement is near.stocks will not correct by much till then.

realty

buy dlf, unitech and sobha.look very good.

dlf heading for 390+, unitech( over short term)-100+ and sobha abt 430+.

buy bhushan steel-480+, hind zinc1170,1250+..

spx

spx maybe a little dull for a couple of days as it tries to retest 1125 and unless it is succesful in doing that, it is heading non stop to 1200+ levels.

jindal southwest

awesome move in this stock.has reached immediate technical levels.

however the stock is now heading for 2400+ levels in very short term and is buy on all dips to 2050-2100 levels.

oil and gas space

bse oil and gas index is what i think will lead the next phase.on the verge of firing all cylinders.

i have already expressed that oil has almost seen the lows and 100+(115 perhaps) tgts are achievable for crude.

nifty

nifty tgts in the short to medium term are 6700-7000.!

quite stunning the targets look at the moment.

all over the tv , net etc experts point to 6300 as the target which is a very simple technical tgt.

however at this moment the index looks much more bullish than that and given a lot of index constituents havenot fired, much higher levels are to come and simply will exceed the consensus bullish tgt of 6300.

all those who sell at 6300 levels will be forced by the market momentum to buy at higher levels , setting the trap for some correction.

euro, crude

euro looks gud for 1.375.

crude, whenever the rally comes, will head for 100+

stock review

jindal south west has fired and so has gitanjali gems.

both have much higher levels to come though.

stocks update

pharma is doing well.metals have to fire though bhushan is holding.
gitanjali has moved today.
a larger move should come once the selling of 20000 and 6000 nse levels get absorbed.

whats the worse scenario- 5650.
do i expect 5650? not at all.
there are no signs as of now. index may react and come down to 5800-5750 levels at max.

sensex

exited all longs. need to see the selling of 6000+ levels and re enter

sensex

with 6000 hit( on nifty futures) and no nervousness, and heavy weights being put to work,stock moves will continue.

really like bpcl-855, icici bank-1190,jindal southwest-1965,2050; tatamotors-1150+,

hindalco-200+.

corrections will be good buys.

spx

a violent upmove is entirely possible today since after yesterdays move it should be hard for spx to give.

stocks

hugely bullish on petronet,pharma,bhushan steel, jsw steel,gitanjali gems,ispat.

still watching reliance.

caution

caution . most are assuming 6000+ will be hit now.
i think otherwise.

sensex

19500 is here.very close to 20000 tgt levels of the bullish scenario outlined before.

like is the habit of sensex it will make everyone nervous before hitting 20k.

sensex

19500 is here.very close to 20000 tgt levels of the bullish scenario outlined before.

like is the habit of sensex it will make everyone nervous before hitting 20k.

quote

no one who can rise before dawn three hundred sixty days a year fails to make his family rich.

spx

spx is not doing the right things, if GN's count was to be valid.

there is one bearish option that i have been maintaining for sometime which leads to fall to sub 1000 levels.that is really worth watching out for.

the HS type pattern is really not in effect, so GN's count or HS pattern formations have to be simply ignored.

spx

spx is not doing the right things, if GN's count was to be valid.

there is one bearish option that i have been maintaining for sometime which leads to fall to sub 1000 levels.that is really worth watching out for.

the HS type pattern is really not in effect, so GN's count or HS pattern formations have to be simply ignored.

spx

spx is not doing the right things, if GN's count was to be valid.

there is one bearish option that i have been maintaining for sometime which leads to fall to sub 1000 levels.that is really worth watching out for.

the HS type pattern is really not in effect, so GN's count or HS pattern formations have to be simply ignored.

exide update

exide has achieved its targets of 150+ .may just consolidate/correct.

sensex

sensex has done , what it needed to do to maintain structural strength.

all reactions to the downsides, whenever they occur, should be limited to 17000 or so and should be great buy opportunities.

if such scenario as outlined works out, an upside to 20000 is feasible by november 2010

us t notes

the bond market indicates , if such a thing as bond and equity market correlation exists, that equity markets are poised for a large rally.

sensex

the market should break 18400 and correct sharply (not deeply), and then break on the upsides for 20000 levels.

this is a bullish view point.

extreme caution

sensex: extreme caution is required now.at maturity levels.

sensex

market at new highs but time is running out to breakout which is at 18400 level.this week only.else a significant decline may be around.lurking.

spx

the decline since the highs is quite unlike any other decline since the lows of 666.

hence a bearish possibility remains in effect as of date .the two turn points are 1095/1135 ( i favour the second one) and some more time.

there is a chance that spx can drop to 900 levels in comin time.

so as a market strategy, i will not like to trade or be positional here at 1095 but be a scalper till market decides.

indiabulls

the stock 'indiabulls' and not the country India Bulls!

its started moving , and tgts are 173.75 and 190.will be vary if it closes for two days below 158 now.

B wave top:spx

it is difficult to say whether B wave has topped.but it may just be so.

i had argued that neely's structure is not correct which essentially was implying strength and no new lows at that time.now at 990-1010 levels are extremely strong levels of support, so a good bounce is due.

indian market is diffident for the simple reason that a major world index has had a standing gap for over a year, and this gap is no mean gap,a huge huge gap.

the breakaway gap.so indian markets are extremely reluctant to go down.

this gap will be narrowed some time in the near future but may just not get filled.

i am very sure that i will put a large chunk of my capital money in long term mutual fund once it gets there and keep making systematic continuous investments in the indian markets.

icici bank

i was asked the tgt for icicibank which is 950.

tgts

almost all the stocks mentioned few days back have achieved their tgts.bharti, m&m, banks etc.

one stock i am hugely bullish on is exide industries for tgt of 150+.cmp is 130.
gone long today in it.
however sensex is at crucial 17650 levels as mentioned and hence selling pressure will be seen in a day or so.how string is the reaction will determine the next upleg.
yes, another stock i have liked esp. today is Icici bank. it looks ripe for a short sweet and rapid upmove.

spx neely

dont agree with neely's structure on spx.

reliance group

i have been firmly of the belief that R group stocks have to go berserk before this rally can top.
i am not saying that this rally i going to top now, but one essential condition is being fulfilled.
a crucial test of sensex is arnd at 17650 levels.how it reacts will determine where it goes.

buffet

Derivatives are seldom well understood by investors and they tend to involve heavy leverage. When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can be interesting."
- Warren Buffet

exit dabur, patni

exiting dabur at 195 and patni at 590
dabur is still bullish for 205-208 though.however with monthly and daily trend down ,it is better to play safe.

longs now

only longs pending are patni computer and some dabur.
todays index move wasnot convincing and though it closed above 17100 which was a crucial point, still going position less seemed better.

still more tgts

bharti > 272 rocket move to 288 hot
tv 18: 105-108 hot
andhra bank: 150+ hot
axis bk: 1275
hdil > 235 tgt is 250+
itc: 293 hot
indiabulls > 159 tgt 190

more tgts

more tgts

bgr energy: 680 hot
ongc:1205
ivrcl - hot: 245
punj :(-) 105
lupin: 1925,1975
m&m: 645

immediate tgts

long in some stocks;
ifci: looks solid, 57.50.once it crosses 60 real upmove will be seen.
uco bank tgt 82-83.even 90 looks on card
vijaya bank: 62-63.
pfc: 312
bhel:2392-2404,2455

equity

sensex: no sign of weakness so far even on clearing day which is surprising.so i will continue to have no position till some clarity returns.tomorrow maybe 5070 levels be a levl to watch out for.
also after one fake close it is back on closing basis above 200dema.

spx.
strength is suggestive of a rally to 1125 levels atleast and hopefully all declines to 1085 levels will be bought into.

sensex

todays upmove got the index out of a tricky nested formation which would have been really something and would have damaged the structure.
still there is hope and one decline to go, which lets see where it leads to.
on the nse 4950-70 will provide a nice short entry.i will be looking to short here on any weakness for one good decline to a new low.

spx

if spx goes below 1025 then, for me, it is a sign that the rally high is in.so i ll be watching this now.it is going to bounce from these 1025 levels(if achieved) and come to 1100 which seems a good level to short in qty for 900 kind of levels.

bse

bse < 16280 will tgt 15950, 15700.
market hasnt shown requiste strength which means a panic is in store esp. in the sector which hasnt broken down: banks.
16075 seems the last hope else a meltdown panic is in store.

shorts

bse sensex has achieved minimum pattern implication. this is the pattern ( expansion) i suspected was forming when i said the minimum tgt was 4900, nse.
euro has confirmed upward bounce and hence should cover all shorts across equities.

on sensex any rise to 17000 should provide a sell opp.

spx

had alow risk entry to go long on the spx at 1125 ES. the stop loss is 1099 and it shouldnot break yesterdays low now though. todays cash action will make that as a stop loss , i hope. tgt 1 is 1160

current

it is best not to have a long term view but just trade short term. extremely high volatility.

euro is really king. 1.22! thats incredible.crude continues to fall.

gold

thats gold power 1241!
this is why i like this beast.
but caution is advised here as almost at tgt1 of 1250.

update

nifty shorts exit : looks well timed .
tomorrow market will attempt 5250 levels, which is in a way decider level .but stocks have shown tremendous strength which augurs well for the bull continuation.

on the spx 1085 was expected at the maximum after the other days decline and it fell to almost 1090 i think which is now bottom for a while.
all signs are in place for a continued run to 1270 levels.neely expects a deep triangle but i am not so sure . some sideways consolidation but certainly not deep enough to provide a low risk entry , which will be 1125-30 zone.

why i dont make money

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.Albert Einstein

this is just the reason when i dont make money: repetitive mistakes.

to quote

Experienced traders have playbooks. We have if-then statements for recurring set ups. We only make these trades in our playbook and according to our if-then statements. Many traders do not have a playbook and/or cannot consistently follow their if-then statements. So really for us trading is just a game of math. Make enough trades where our win rate is 60plus percent and our downside is one with an upside of five and it very difficult for us to have a negative month.
But there is something more. Experienced traders emphasize certain plays depending on the market. They adapt. So in a slow uptrending market they focus on buying pullbacks and breakouts. In a volatile market, which may have just started, they focus on playing the momentum. In a range bound market they focus on support/resistance and fade trades.
But then there is even something more. There are subsets for all of our plays. And through market experience we can tweak our plays to trade these subsets. So if a stock pushes above an important resistance level and then fails, we are short. An inexperienced trader sits there carping about how the stock failed to breakout, 50c out of the money.
But there is even something more. When I have a few losing days in a row I have a talk with myself. This is not written about very much in the trading blogosphere. I succeed as a trader because I view myself as a successful person. I will find a way. No matter how tough the market. No matter the HFTs, unpredictable reversals, or supposed market manipulation.
After these negative days I insist through focused mental preparation that I trade only my best set ups for the market I am in at the time. And I am not sure how many people are able to do this. Most succumb to their lowest common denominator. They bitch about their firm, the trading platform, the structure of the market, who they sit next to, their payout, the HFTs, GS, Greece, or whatever else makes them feel better about themselves but does nothing to improve their P&L. Instead of seeking a solution to their underperformance. Consistently I demand mentally and statistically that I am in the plays that make sense to me depending on the market we are in.

quote

“ If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.”

buffett

Decision making
"The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage."
Career decision
"It's crazy to take little in between jobs just because they look good on your resume. That's like saving sex for your old age. Do what you love and work for whom you admire the most, and you've given yourself the best chance in life you can."
Investment
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."
"Wall Street is the only place that people ride to work in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway."
"I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
"I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."

gold

gold is doing what it should be doing (though slowly).
heading for 1250 hopefully where i will reassess what its doing.

bull vs bear

such sharp cuts should ideally signal bull market continuation.
or a long bear coming...
i would like to see bear for a while imply because there is too much good news flying around !
but yesterdays move looks still like a bull to me .

nifty shorts

looks most wise to cover shorts here.

repeating earlier post

ideally spx should be 'frozen' and then shakeout with a drop to 1160 zone.or maybe i am just guessing too much here.but its good to have no position here.!

realisation

the other day when my sl on spx was triggered , i took it lightly though my in my mind i was feeling that this shouldnt have happened.still i didnt analyse it well that time that this points to abigger weakness.thankfully yesterday ,looking at reaction of stocks i realised that a larger correction was looming.
on ES i was initially expecting a shakeout of longs to 1160 level which seemed very likely then and has come about now .lets see the reactions at these levels and take a call .now we know why euro was acting funny since it didint wanna rally.!

nifty

i am long idbi and fortis.lets see how much damage occurs tomorrow.my tgt on idbi was 132-33 and fortis 182.
seeing the longer term nifty chart , it looks quite possible that 5600-5700 should be hit.

es

looking to go long on all dips to 1202-1195 with sl at 1186.75 tgt 1 : 1225-30 tgt2: 1250.

sensex

a lot of socks look poised for upside break which coupled with the fact that index is not falling with any speed, a nice rally is coming. worst case is sideways movement in index for a week or so.
stock focus is required.
i like jsw steel, idbi, infosys, hdfc, hdfc bank, litl, titan, andhra bank, allahabad bank, dena bank,
biocon, ge shipping as of today. new series should see some action especially with support from eurodollar.

shakeout

spx shakeout has happened.so a good run should come about-maybe 1275.

gold

i like gold ..though looks an obvious buy here , so just undecided.1130-35 seems a bottom.looks good for 1250 and 1400 or thereabouts.

real purpose

i am not a fancy reader of blogs, but just looking around ,
i ve come to realise that maybe the whole purpose of gaining technical expertise is not to make money through trading but to sell subscription based services!

ES

a good zone for short is 1195 tgt of 1171-68.stop 1205.25
shorting at 1186 doesnot appeal to me for its nearing support and stop is far.

volatility

like the volatility on spx.next run up on spx to 1250-1300 cannot come without a shakeout of longs.maybe thats what we are going to get here.

child

We are guilty of many errors and many faults,But our worst crime is abandoning the children,Neglecting the fountain of life.Many of the things we need can wait.The child cannot.Right now is the time his bones are being formed,His blood is being made,And his senses are being developed.To him we cannot answer 'Tomorrow'.His name is 'Today'.
----Gabriela Mistral (1889-1957), a poet from Chile who won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1945

to win

The key is not the 'will to win' - everyone has that. It is the will to prepare to win that is important." - Bob Knight

general

euro is acting funny, wonder why.
spx is moving on expected lines and is showing more strength than desired, which may be a function of the fact that in general public and traders are not committed longs.from 1200 levels it doesnot do enough to shake longs on legitimate GS news.thats strength.

indian nse is static though pockets of stocks are showing strength.

gold is consolidating before a move.
my expectation is that shortly and slowly, spx should become volatile and gold and eurodollar more tradeable.

spx: need to be long

need to be long somewhere at 1195-98 ES with a stop at 1185.75.
tgt 1:: 1225-30

spx

market timing

i dont understand and am quite indifferent to fundamentals but my own twisted understanding says that a lot of ownership transfer will be to 'stronger' long term players who believe in the inherent strength of the country, spirit of enterprise and economy and so , say Buffett /jhunjhunwala types.there will be correction and corrective phases but the long term upward pressure has begun and it will be extremely extremely difficult to time stock market purchases especially in markets showing strength like india, and to make serious money over longer horizon one has to buy all significant dips.

listless trading

ideally spx should be 'frozen' and then shakeout with a drop to 1160 zone.
or maybe i am just guessing too much here.

but its good to have no position here.!

euro dollar

euro has started moving favourably.
it should move above 1.37 and not break 1.34 levels. 1st tgt remains 1.41

1195 is here

1195 is here. i would like to exit here for once, i have some spy may calls .
the reaction at 1200 will suggest how much downside, if any, is to come.

EURO DOLLAR

my technical take on eurodollar :

1.
Eurodollar is in a downward corrective .Hence all rallies will be meandering and not very sharp .

2.
The long term bottoming zone for euro dollar is 1.28-1.30 zone .It should make a bottom within next 6 months with 1.30 as a solid support zone.
It looks extremely unlikely that eurodollar will reach 1.24 or lower levels any time soon.

3.
Eurodollar in a shorter term , is near support and should begin a counter trend upmove to 1.41-1.43 zone with a good chance of reaching 1.43 within next 6-7 weeks.

4.
If such a rally as above comes about it will be a point of EXIT for short term play as a move to 1.30 should come about after such a rally.

5.
A move below 1.30 without a rally to 1.41 levels will negate the analysis.

spx

the news is getting better, 1225-50 looks on cards after a smal blip before 1200.
it will be very surprising to see spx not reach 1225-50 and then go much higher than that.
volatility should set in at these levels.

but this is the forecasting domain.
longs should be exited near 1195 levels for once .

spx

long with sl of 1151 tgt 1 1175, tgt 2 1195.

sensex

sensex is at and near the point of maximum resistance .
next 2-3 trading days should be interesting.
two possibilities emerge:
increased volatility and near 16800. or
straight upmove.

since index consolidated at 17000-17200 before an upmove lets see what eventually happens.

sp500

new highs as expected have materialised.
i expect move to 1250 in time to come.
further the market has not shown a topping action , so its unlikely that it will breakdown significantly soon.euro is about 1.38 and spx is at a new recent high which implies either spx is lagging euro if euro has broken down or spx is leading and euro has bottomed and will slowly head higher till it spikes up.
i am obviously favoring spx as leading for time being.

index trading

and here's one from one : for next 4 odd years , trading the indices esp spx will be extremely extremely difficult.market should ideally bankrupt most of the stand alone positional index traders .
trade stocks.

spx lows

am i glad to see that GN's official wave count in trading updates is that mar 09 lows cannot be broken.

trap

taleb said that it doesnt matter what we think we know. what really matters is what we actually know.as a technical trader, i have trouble making sense out of one spx chart using a couple of means of analysis and in general we all want to dissect,commment, understand and be an authority on american/ their respective countries economies,oil, currency etc.the need to be a fundamentalist and understand everybit of information for capturing 3-4% moves on spx/equity indices is really the biggest trap for a technical trader.

no mans land

based on budget day price action, market closed on a no mans land zone, which means that budget was a non event and market will start tracking global equity and currency movements.

i do expect some weakness tomorrow.

budget

budge over and no bounce yet.i ve been expecting a drop to 4760 range ..hopefully that will come about. but its been quite dangerous to take a position, long or short.
spx is also meandering.
its always good to have markets in such a doldrum coz one gets a break and secondly the trend after such meandering is strong and decisive.

nifty

looks all set for 4760 level, which is a great buy pt. small bounce maybe seen from 4802-4790 spot levels but 4760 arnd shud be reached.
will be looking to go long here with initial stop at 4739.all cash levels here.

markets

it looks unlikely at this time that markets, nifty and spx will break the lows made recently.
in that case , a couple of weeks down the line , nifty should begin its upleg to 5600 levels at spx to 1200 .
except for scalps, it will not pay to trade positional the way charts are set up.so i will not be aggressive in taking a position.

nifty

exited long at 4921 future level.
will look to go long on all decline to 4970 with a stop of 4940. actually it should not trade below 4955.if it does i ll be very cautious

nifty

have gone long nifty fut at 4870 level towards the close. lets see what happens tomorrow.

first sign of some strength in the market.

resisitance zone

for sensex resistance exists at 16400-16650 zone which is a huge resistance.
but failure of market to fall is usually a sign that rally is looming(or extreme weakness).
i ll give one to two more sessions for a decisive rally to occur else i ll move to 'extreme weakness happening' camp.
however a lot of stock charts are getting positioned for a rally esp. the reliance pack-ril, rel, relcap ..suzlon..some real estate ones , a lot of psu's ..and many cash stocks....which augurs well for the bulls.
and i have said previously also, a top shouldnot ideally occur till reliance makes a new current high.

i didnot trade last weak once shorts were covered , i hope market will give some bounce and a safer zone to trade.

i really like TWL.real hot.

MARKET FIGHTS

markets are fighting hard not to decline more than they have or atleast reduce the speed of the fall.this is a typical sign .however it might also be interesting to note that markets are taking longer than usual to form a bottom and rally any significantly.one or two more sessions and it has to rally or fall hard.

exit shorts : sensex

covered shorts at 15700

but it will take some effort to get above 16200 level.

nifty

all shorts need to be covered up at monday opening.
its a risky zone for shorts to be in place . a sizeable bounce may just be around .
nifty will attempt /make a new high as of now.

initial targets

a break of 1103 was expected to give 30 odd points straight which has happened.
spx has bounced from support zone.
in a couple of days or maybe on friday , a good safe shorting level will emerge which is 1110-1125 zone .
strategy is to short at higher levels but on weakness only.however i feel fairly confident that even one was to short on stregth and hold , one should not incur a loss.

RISK

i had set up to go short at 1103 level 33% position and rest 1109 hoping to make a better average.
however i had a strong feeling that it wil not go much above 1103 levels but still played safe.
sometimes one has to take appropriate risks to make that extra money.

exited shorts

am out of my shorts at 1085.will see how cash opens.hopefully it will not gap down too much.it should be some time before spx gets to 1145 even to 1125 levels will be difficult, but i am still in the camp that we have not seen the highs.at the moment i am looking on shorting on more weakness or on bounce from 1103-1110 kind of range.

any time now a bounce has to start.but a viable scalp maybe if cash opens flat, then short for 1085 levels again , just as intraday play.

contemplation

spx has shown significant weakness.so contemplating what do with the short position: book profit or place breakven stop.

it is difficult to bet against neely's record in calling important turning points but as of now , i still feel that spx will make a new high or almost reach there.given the decline so far, i am of the opinion that it will form a contracting triangle.however this is just an analysis. for trading we have to be short for positional/swing trade.

sold puts

closed puts..2.75

bought puts

added 113 spy put at 1.87

reaction on way

i am looking for 1110 on cash for initial exit and see how it holds/doesnt 1103 level.if it doesnt , there will be atleast 20-30 pts straight more.
but looking at nasdaq 100, i am inclined to think that a little more decline atleast is on way

reaction

expecting a reaction in spx to 1115 levels .
one should look to go long on such decline with sl at 1103 on closing basis for tgt of 1170+

from the kirk report

Knowing what you want in life and then having the right mix of patience and preparation will make the difference between success and failure. Once you understand that, anything and everything you desire is within your reach. The good news is that no matter what your heart's desire or how young or old you may be, there is no better time than right now to begin working toward what you really want and making it happen for you and your life. All you have to do now is simply get started!

feeling

It seems to get more difficult with the more I know

nasdaq position closed

sold the feb qqq 46 call for 1.37 bought yesterday.
price action is not impressive to give me confidence to hold to an option position.

20 and 50 dema

long qqq feb 2010 46 call @ 1.20

long qqq feb 2010 46 call @ 1.20
a couple of days back, nasdaq 100 looked superbullish.. now a great deal of that immediate bullishness has been negated..still worth a shot , tgt on nasday 100 is 1925, and the 1970

must read

1. mastering elliott wave-glenn neely.-even if one is not interested in elliott wave /neowave , for me it is the most important book i ve read on undeerstanding market behaviour.and in case one is interested in elliott wave, the bible. a fan for life.
2. candle stick charting- bigalow
3. candle stick charting-nison
4. candle stick charting-morris
candle stick charting along with 20 and 50 dema are such a powerful tool.not to be disregarded.
5. technical analysis- edward and magee: contains wealth of information on market behaviour and chart patterns ,one can simply trade on this book.
6. way of turtle- faith: just for the fact that it is disciplined trading that earns you money.
7. technical analysis of financial markets: murphy-- good overview of a lot of concepts
8. come into my trading room: elder
9. the logical trader : fisher-his concept of pivot, rolling pivot is worth a read.
10. books by dr brett- great writer and trading coach.even his blog is a must read.

i plan to do a comprehensive writeup of each book covering their highlights

trading nuggets

few nuggets i read today (i loved the last one) :
1.The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
2.The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
3.The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
4.Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
5.Standing aside is a position.
6. Lose your opinion – not your money.
7. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!

change

change is necessary before it is necessary.