euro-gold

euro has hit 1.295, gold has resumed its downwards journey and is about 1570.

still maintain my previous targets on equities, euro and gold though its difficult to get a hand of what spx is doing right now.

its just a pendulum right now doing flip flop on its axis.

however since markets are always attempting for clarity, the picture hopefully will be clearer soon.

just do it

What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence. The only consequence is what we do.

reflection

it is difficult to make money in the markets because we confuse analysis as being synonymous with trade.

review of wrong analysis

i had been bullish on indian index (and bank index) with targets of 18000 +.before that i had a bearish view all along expecting 15300 in the least.so the markets played a trick and set up the perfect trap for all technical traders who like me saw higher levels expecting that the low may be in in direct conflict with earlier analysis and not paying heed to long term technicals and getting carried away placing opinion on markets( like low may be in)

in the markets , mistakes and analysis like this is usually very expensive and one learns the hard way.but thats the only way to learn i guess.

so though i am mindful of the fact that markets have been going down inspite of global bad news which is a rare thing to happen.maybe it is warning us that things will be a little bad ahead and to brace for the same.

so i am sticking to a little more bearish view as highlighted in prior posts with targets of 900 on spx, 1.29 on eurodollar,13852-14286 on indian sensex.the stop losses for such a trade is 1292 on spx and 17703 on sensex.

markets update

to make structural sense actually, in the present context:

---spx should fall to 900-860 zone!

---euro dollar should be at least less than 1.29,

---indian sensex should be less than 14300-13852

this is ofcourse based on the fact, that current fall is part of the ongoing correction since 2008(and not that a new bull market started since the lows of 666).

these values are almost like blasphemy to most traders.so lets see how next 6 months pan out.

bank nifty

possible bank nifty targets are 11065 and 11435

the crux of all problems

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

sensex

there is good chance that sensex is all set to rally to 18945

spx

spx had changed trend at 1124 as written before.

since the change it has been actively defending 1120 zone refusing to go and close below it.

so whenever it closes below 1124 on a daily basis should be a sign that the next move down is starting.targets as given before still stand.

the only one issue is that there is a complete news based selloff eg. spx is downgraded and it sell off. europe is in trouble, it sells off.this is not exactly the way it should be happening. and inspite of this element of fear and global panic, it refuses to go below 1124 and do a close below.maybe it is just bidding time.else..

gold update

sometime back, based on time and price studies i had commented that a sell off may be seen in gold by september which has come true topping in the range also thought.

gold has changed trend now and should see minimum retrace( which is in line with the perception at the moment that it should see a large retrace!).

it is not the best time to hold or buy gold for sure.

the beast update

gold has respected its long term tgt.hopefully it will not move further and avoid the bubble territory.

trend reversal point is at 1620.

it should not move much above 1825 type of zone now.

excellence

“If you focus on success, you’ll have stress. But if you pursue excellence, success will be guaranteed.” ~ Deepak Chopra

nifty update

on august 2nd i had posted that index should move to 4800. it has hot 4796, in a matter of 10 sessions i suppose.

update

gold continues unabated.

looking at the charts , gold's immediate target i have posted last time..

but if i look at the bubble territory , its 2300-2600 usd.

will it get there?

the beast

gold is the un-tameable beast of the financial market defying gravity making new highs.

still to hazard a guess, it is likley to see sell off perhaps by september, topping out in 1850-1950 zone and falling to 1350 levels.

spx

bounces in spx whenever they come will be limited to 1200 and below. it is almost not possible to go above 1250 for spx .so that becomes upper ceiling and change of trend level.

further very soon it will come to 1039-1009. eventual tgt is 935-950 zone.

spx

1130 was an approximate zone of change of trend.. the exact change of trend happens at 1124.

nifty,spx , oil

nifty had confirmed the pattern i wrote last. 5020-4985 is the area from which bounce is likely.watch for that area and cover all shorts for once here. bounce will begin around/on the day when nifty will close at the lowest point of the day.

spx ,on a bearish sell signal , is in a hurry to reach its trend reversal point as written last.

this has effectively meant that 1370 was indeed the top for quite some time now!

crude has come down to 80usd after hitting the top of 115usd!!

i feel quite nice about these forecasts.

nifty

nifty has hit 5325.a meaningful bounce shouldnot start before 5285.however it looks all set for 5170.

spx is also on a bearish sell signal which is not good for world markets.spx changes trend at 1130.

nest few days are very crucial technically.

the pain in equities may just continue.

nifty

nifty's rections off RBI policy and since then is symptomatic of a triangular formation and failure in e leg, something which can take the best offguard . thats what the mkt did .and hence there has been massive unwinding since then, clearly indicative of wrong directional bets and positions.

i have always felt that index is bound to make a new low below 5200.

hence the nifty should now move to 5355-5328 intially.if correct the low made should end a corrective pattern and next few months after that should be positive for the index,even if it is an intervening x wave.

path contd

last time i wrote that nifty is near st areas and since it had shown strength , it will not go down much.incidentally it had hit the low which hasnt been broken since in the last weeks or so's consolidation.

it should now move closer to 5830. a little resistance is there at 5740 zone.

neely

every trader understands some phase of the mkt better than other phases of the market. it may be a bear, a bull, a range bound phase.in my little experience i havenot seen exception to this rule. so the only way one can achieve meaningful profit in the market is by minimising his losses in the phases he is not able to understand.the extent of your losses when you are wrong really decide the longetivity in the market.

neely is undergoing the same phase with regards to his forecasting. from some spectacular analysis to a lot of misses in the current run.

but without a doubt MEW is a most significant book of market analysis, second to none.through neowave, the insights he gives you about the market is work of pure genius.he deserves more credit than he has received.he has laid the foundation of a very powerful tool.

google

i dont usuually like to comment on US stocks coz i dont track the stocks at all, but the some charts are truly exceptional.

google has a long term break point at 700. above which it should head for 900.

have been a huge huge fan of IBM chart.

IBM is absolutely stunning. it should be hard for it to come don to < 150 zone for a long time now tgt is immediate and of 250-260. anywhere close to 150 its a blind buy and a steal.

sensex debugging

was sent a mail by a friend ..chart of a well known analyst for elliot-neowave analysis

showed the current rise as a double zig zag on sensex.

its not a double zig zag for some simple reasons of problems of degree in price and time.

in the second zigzag, time consumed by c is less than a, b consumes more time than the entire first zigzag... and so on.

such problems highlight the fact that the assumption of a double zigzag is not correct at all.

path update

nse moved to 5750 and has come to 5500 .since it showed strength by moving to 5750 ( as opposed to 5680 as i had previously mentioned) i should not go below 5400.

5430 about zone should provide good support.

path

to attempt a future path is an exercise rooted in luck.still to hazard one:

nifty will move to 5620 initially and attempt 5680.then react to 5400-5500 levels and then attempt for 5800 levels( ideally 5900).this is a bullish scenario playing out.

nifty expectations

the first sign of strength will be a move to 5800+ level.

most ( on TV) are expecting significant resistance at 5600 levels which is an obvious resistance.

but taking it out or not taking it out doesnot lend any weightage on the charts.

say what happens if 5600 is taken out and index reacts from 5700 odd. does that mean index is strong or weak?

so it is a resistance alright but not one that matters.

i look forward to 5800+ level as the first indicator of strength on index.

a time to .....

some major forecasts made

gold: forecast: tgt 1540+.. target achieved. high so far 1560

crude oil( nymex) : tgt 115 usd. target achieved. high so far 115!

spx : forecast : 1370 .target achieved. high so far 1370!

nifty: the day lic hsg finance fell, i said that the a long frustrating consolidation has begun.

the index will now frustrate the long and the short both and oscillate between everyone 's expectations.it hasnot broken the previous low but will do so .stocks are being battered left right and centre which is and will be the cause of all frustrations.

it is difficult to provide a concrete wave label to the current scenario .

Last 3-4 years have been very eventful for the indian and financial markets.a startling bear followed by a dazzling bull.

but taking a lead from sports, all good players say in cricket know that they must leave and defend their wicket and life on good balls and wait patiently since loose favourable balls will come every now and then

a good trader /investor must invest when the odds are in favour. They are not so right now.it is very easy to loose money in this market.So my current stand is to stay aside and chill.

nifty

nifty is in a frustrating zone. the base formation phase has started and i feel we have almost seen the lows.this ideally will mean that low of 5200 may just be touched /brushed marginally but not broken convincingly.the odds currently are against such happening also.

the other aspect is : is it a good time to buy? for traders : scalping moves will be there, but since market is in early consolidation phase, it will be ambiguous and uncertain in direction, which is not good for positional trading. so swing and be merry!

investors have no choice but to buy these dips. however there may not be much gain, if any till the end of this year. so the time period as an investor has to be go beyond couple of years to reap the gains. the patient will be rewarded.

the best gains come from investments made in periods of uncertainty.

the precious and the black

oil is down 10% (oops). it has reversed from the top zone of its target like it was expected to do .it is not a mere co incidence that almost all the analysts were calling for 200 usd oil just like they were calling for 50usd oil when it was in 70 usd.i think most of them, if not all, are paid to be wrong1

gold has also reversed from the top of its range target. noteworthy is silver which has lost just the way it had gained.

ideally silver should go into a long consolidation phase before any worthwhile bull be seen in it.

in any case i will review the charts and post accordingly.

the precious and the black

oil is down 10% (oops). it has reversed from the top zone of its target like it was expected to do .it is not a mere co incidence that almost all the analysts were calling for 200 usd oil just like they were calling for 50usd oil when it was in 70 usd.i think most of them, if not all, are paid to be wrong1

gold has also reversed from the top of its range target. noteworthy is silver which has lost just the way it had gained.

ideally silver should go into a long consolidation phase before any worthwhile bull be seen in it.

in any case i will review the charts and post accordingly.

gold

gold : at 1537!

few stocks

few stocks on nse i like are for short moves:

apollo tyres: small move to 80

sbi: move to 3100-3200

coal india : move to 400

petronet: move to 145+

besides these: jindal steel, hind zinc, hcl tech, titan look okay.

keeping an eye on RIL, it s under an unnatural consolidation phase and will lead the next phase up of the indian markets (without any doubt).

whenever ( thats the important question actually) it comes out of this 'consolidation', it will atleast be 2000+

gold

gold hits 1500 usd!

some more upside left atleast.min tgt remains 1540 usd

markets

-oil has hit 110 usd ! so it has been absolutely on track.

- gold is at 1465$ and seems on way for the before mentioned tgt of 1540usd mentioned some time back.i feel its going to give a berserk move very soon

- spx is almost at top of its range.

- indian markets have also started their period of base formation and almost the low is in.

the low was in actually the market had a turnover of over 3.0 lac crore.

however a larger consolidation phase is continuing and will continue to frustrate.

crude oil

crude oil has hit 100$.

pretty much on forecasted lines so far.

sensex

sensex has corrected quite significantly ,which begets the question: has a medium term downtrend begun?i have been asked this most over the last one month or so

perhaps a C wave has begun ?

i have been off markets for last 45 days or more.so havenot looked at charts..

i am looking to get back to markets soon though not decided the time as yet since budget period is not the prettiest trading period.

further nifty is at levels where there has to be a bounce since 5350 levels shouldnot break in one or two go's.

but the day LIC HSG Fin and SBI's of the world reacted the way they did,it became very clear that banking index and financials which have really lead the way willnot do so anymore and rotation is now in order.LIC has almost halved from the peak price , which doesnot ordinarily happen in small corrective pattens..

so i will make an analysis maybe this weekend or arnd that time.

but whatever wave it is , the lows of the bear market will not be broken. sensex 14000 is just about the floor. so one shouldnot get overly excited about the C wave devastation!!

i ll post more accurate levels once i review the charts.

spx

spx continues too fool every top caller in this trading world!