Monday, May 10, 2010

to quote

Experienced traders have playbooks. We have if-then statements for recurring set ups. We only make these trades in our playbook and according to our if-then statements. Many traders do not have a playbook and/or cannot consistently follow their if-then statements. So really for us trading is just a game of math. Make enough trades where our win rate is 60plus percent and our downside is one with an upside of five and it very difficult for us to have a negative month.
But there is something more. Experienced traders emphasize certain plays depending on the market. They adapt. So in a slow uptrending market they focus on buying pullbacks and breakouts. In a volatile market, which may have just started, they focus on playing the momentum. In a range bound market they focus on support/resistance and fade trades.
But then there is even something more. There are subsets for all of our plays. And through market experience we can tweak our plays to trade these subsets. So if a stock pushes above an important resistance level and then fails, we are short. An inexperienced trader sits there carping about how the stock failed to breakout, 50c out of the money.
But there is even something more. When I have a few losing days in a row I have a talk with myself. This is not written about very much in the trading blogosphere. I succeed as a trader because I view myself as a successful person. I will find a way. No matter how tough the market. No matter the HFTs, unpredictable reversals, or supposed market manipulation.
After these negative days I insist through focused mental preparation that I trade only my best set ups for the market I am in at the time. And I am not sure how many people are able to do this. Most succumb to their lowest common denominator. They bitch about their firm, the trading platform, the structure of the market, who they sit next to, their payout, the HFTs, GS, Greece, or whatever else makes them feel better about themselves but does nothing to improve their P&L. Instead of seeking a solution to their underperformance. Consistently I demand mentally and statistically that I am in the plays that make sense to me depending on the market we are in.

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