Hi Vipul: We seem to have spent enough time trying to break up side without success.. On RIL it is increasingly looking like 900 before new highs. Any fresh thoughts?
KRG i am quite clueless about whats happening. sensex seems at a turn point..doesnt seem to breakout , stocks seem tired .. but there is little distributive weakness, which should be present at major turn points.
this can really imply that what i am analysing is not happening . so i am just looking for a review of analysis.if you have thoughts, ideas as to what could be happening..logical or wild..i am interested.
in any case trading is too dull and listless atleast for me.
Vipul: "Confusion is always the most honest response" - Marty Indik My thoughts are as following: Indices have spent a lot of time in sideways consolidation. For me, earlier this usally meant continuation of trend. However, during last few years and especially after some exposure to Neely and having seen enough reversals from a long sideways consolidations, I am not only open to reversals from this kind of patterns; in fact have started looking for reversals in these situations.
In this particular situation, I think we have either seen the major "B" top or near it (in most equities,copper, crude. And in Indian real estate. I was trying to buy a flat for last 3 months and am aghast at the supply that is coming up in prime areas in Mumabi. I might still buy it feeling that it is the tops, and should probably hedge with equity shorts in the worst case!! Currently I also like the CNBC type of complacency with no one seeing a correction below 5200 (Nifty). I also like the Vivek Patil's current analysis where he is seeing that we are in the last leg of the symmetrical
One wild thought is "Buy Dubai property and sell Mumbai/Delhi property"
Another thought is that during the last rally some of the high beta mid-caps I am tracking (such as TRIL, Rain, Triveni,Orient, HOEC etc) have not performed much.. Anyway.. would like you to elaborate "distributive weakness"
KRG:its not even confusion.its really more cluelessness. Patil's flaw is that at maximum he analyses weekly structure.a symmetrical can be a count but it cannot really start at the lows of bear market. if you look at monthly charts , maybe you ll have a better feel why it cannot be so.
now if we breakdown from this kindof consolidation at top or more like distribution , this will mean sensex will not exceed these highs for 4-5 years atleast. hence the market has to fight hard and exceed levels of weakness .so it should exceed 18500 which will make the structure overall not weak. now this is a bull case. ofcourse market can just snap and fall and consolidate sideways to down for next 5-6 years. that will put an end to all cnbc complacency and also market traders. forget high beta, reliance hasnt performed! for 15 mnths it has been in a range.
Hi Vipul: We seem to have spent enough time trying to break up side without success.. On RIL it is increasingly looking like 900 before new highs. Any fresh thoughts?
ReplyDeleteCheers
KRG
ReplyDeletei am quite clueless about whats happening.
sensex seems at a turn point..doesnt seem to breakout , stocks seem tired ..
but there is little distributive weakness, which should be present at major turn points.
this can really imply that what i am analysing is not happening .
so i am just looking for a review of analysis.if you have thoughts, ideas as to what could be happening..logical or wild..i am interested.
in any case trading is too dull and listless atleast for me.
Vipul:
ReplyDelete"Confusion is always the most honest response"
- Marty Indik
My thoughts are as following: Indices have spent a lot of time in sideways consolidation. For me, earlier this usally meant continuation of trend. However, during last few years and especially after some exposure to Neely and having seen enough reversals from a long sideways consolidations, I am not only open to reversals from this kind of patterns; in fact have started looking for reversals in these situations.
In this particular situation, I think we have either seen the major "B" top or near it (in most equities,copper, crude. And in Indian real estate. I was trying to buy a flat for last 3 months and am aghast at the supply that is coming up in prime areas in Mumabi. I might still buy it feeling that it is the tops, and should probably hedge with equity shorts in the worst case!! Currently I also like the CNBC type of complacency with no one seeing a correction below 5200 (Nifty). I also like the Vivek Patil's current analysis where he is seeing that we are in the last leg of the symmetrical
One wild thought is "Buy Dubai property and sell Mumbai/Delhi property"
Another thought is that during the last rally some of the high beta mid-caps I am tracking (such as TRIL, Rain, Triveni,Orient, HOEC etc) have not performed much.. Anyway.. would like you to elaborate "distributive weakness"
Cheers
KRG:its not even confusion.its really more cluelessness.
ReplyDeletePatil's flaw is that at maximum he analyses weekly structure.a symmetrical can be a count but it cannot really start at the lows of bear market.
if you look at monthly charts , maybe you ll have a better feel why it cannot be so.
now if we breakdown from this kindof consolidation at top or more like distribution ,
this will mean sensex will not exceed these highs for 4-5 years atleast.
hence the market has to fight hard and exceed levels of weakness .so it should exceed 18500 which will make the structure overall not weak.
now this is a bull case.
ofcourse market can just snap and fall and consolidate sideways to down for next 5-6 years.
that will put an end to all cnbc complacency and also market traders.
forget high beta, reliance hasnt performed!
for 15 mnths it has been in a range.